The notion that after a quarter century no one has been named as the Lord’s Avenger nor confessed to the crime seems hard to believe for some. On its face the letter should reveal the culprit but in so many years no one has been revealed. A period of focusing upon individuals all of whom were at the Ukiah demo, while the authenticity of the claims in the letter were strongly doubted, demonstrates the fault of the past investigations. It is all or nothing for the LA letter. Believe it or shred it. Picking parts to produce a specific end is as bad as rejecting it all which no accuser has done.
Thus since no individual has been rightfully accused the Lord’s Avenger is a conspiracy. Conspiracies are difficult things to prove to exist. They are ‘theories’ and not facts. Joe Blow did it is true or false but Joe blow and a group of four is a conspiracy and therefore more difficult to demonstrate true or false. OK, sometimes but not always. For instance, the individual accusations break down in two ways. One is that there is a means of demonstrating innocence thus the accusation is false. The other comes from the search for the reason the local cop or the FBI hasn’t arrested him yet is that he works for the FBI. The individual accusation ends in a conspiracy. If I accused Cherney saying he was Bari’s last intimate relationship ending just weeks before the bombing over emotional arguments and infidelity, and wondered why he had not been arrested, I would posit he was working for the FBI or the PRCIA or Maxxam. They would be protecting him, perhaps even paying him.
As it is, the highest probability given the evidence points to the Lord’s Avenger letter being confessional and therefore truthful. For Cherney and Anderson, who prefer either the FBI or the ex-husband, the idea that the Army of God bombed Bari because she and he had offended them and their god is to say Cherney is responsible for inciting the bombing. This turns out to be the case according to this analysis.
The conspiratorial suspects we will examine include [so far]:
The Gospel Outreach Church, no named suspects [0 unnamed suspects]
The Army of God, Shelley Shannon and others [4 named suspects]
A Timber Industry, PRCIA [Public Relations firms, acting as contractors to extractive corporations, hire ex-CIA sub-contractors to do dirty jobs] with Wise Use: “Dr.” John P. Nichols, Ron Arnold, Randy Weaver, Bob Lobonico, and the Unabomber [5 suspects]. This is the Robert McLaughlin Theory.
A Timber Industry, FBI conspiracy: SA Saena and others. [4 suspects], This is the Darryl Cherney Theory.
The FBI COINTELPRO redux, cus’ they just do this.
There may be other conspiracies to examine, but in more than 25 years these are the only ones that have been described well enough to be tested for likelihood. As these conspiracies have been examined by investigators no links to the crime have surfaced bringing the Timber Industry or FBI under serious suspicion. Our focus will begin with the AoG allegations and in subsequent postings the individuals and remaining conspiracies will be examined. Our previous conclusions, available at Results, about Individuals left no one except the Unabomber as a serious suspect.
The criteria for likelihood includes a Conspiracy Test and a Complexity Test. The Conspiracy Test includes the 6 tests for conspiracy theories used as a means to determine the likelihood any given theory can be valid. This is the minimum requirement while the Complexity Test sets the higher bar. For any person or persons to have been able to do as the Lord’s Avenger did, they would have had to decide to bomb, to plan a bombing, to stalk Judi Bari, to build the bomb, to place the bomb in Bari’s car, to write the Lord’s Avenger letter, to mail the letter to the Santa Rosa Press Democrat.
There was also the hate campaign that accompanied the electoral campaigns and anti-EF! Hysteria, generally attributed to the Wise Use and generally to PRCIA whose PR firms with ex-CIA officers ran their own infiltration and disruption campaigns and unrelated to the bombing. The COINTELPRO style program had become privatized and used without reference to the FBI though it can be assumed the authors of the campaign had contact with the FBI.
The Conspiracy Test applied to the AoG Allegations
Often enough what we see played out before us appears the work of a massively power and all-knowing enemy. We suspect a shadowy group operating behind closed doors with secret weapons and we are all going to die! The accused denies a conspiracy existed and if powerful enough the denial is enough. The 1972 Watergate Break-in was one of those until the next year when some people began to talk and we learn that the break-in was a conspiracy of ex-FBI, ex-CIA and Cuban counter-revolutionaries. The crime was complex. The conspiracy more so but it was true: There was a powerful all-knowing enemy, a conspiracy involving the highest elected officials and the shadowiest groups around.
We need a test to rely upon to give weight to the possibility that a conspiracy theory could lead to proof of conspiracy.
Occam’s Razor – simple = better: The letter exists. No simple motive exists for a fraudulent letter. Face value is good enough. Circumstances existed in which the letter made sense. It would be repeated by Army of God members. Pipe bomb with nails. Letter with components. All conspiracy suspects and the individual suspects except the AoG fail this test. Main reason is that a theory with a fraudulent letter is more complex than one with a honest letter.
Falsifiability – what if? This test is about what mathematicians call indirect proof. What if no Army of God members were at the Ukiah 1988 demo? What if Bar’s car had a door alarm? What if the AoG members were not in the Lord’s Avenger’s state of mind yet? They may not have done it even if they wanted to kill. Maybe someone who knew about the AoG built the bomb and added the bomb descriptions to the letter? Terrorists stick together in denial, don’t they? There are many questions. Some matter more than others. Army of God soldiers were at the demo. There are photos. The car had no alarm.
Worst Intentions test – He wouldn’t do that. They did. AoG proved later to have those intentions on multiple occasions arranging face to face assassinations and bombings including innocent fatalities a la Unabomber tactics.
Cui Bono test – who profited? The Corporations had a PRCIA campaign to defeat the Initiatives. Did they need a bomb to win? Judi Bari’s history and rising fame brought in the AoG forces. Their profit was Ideological and vengeful for insults to their god and to their god’s chosen people.
Eternal Recurrence of the same – same as it ever was
This was a precursor bomb. The only terrorist bomb of 1990 according to the FBI;s statistics as reported in 1991. The first attempted murder by the AoG to be followed by murders in 1993 by the AoG and in 1992 by the Unabomber. It should be noted that of the individual suspects the Unabomber is the only murderer. Of the conspiracies involving CIA, FBI or ex-CIA, ex-FBI there are those who have murdered which measures why they are suspects. The AoG murdered as the Lord’s Avenger letter described.
Impartial Spectator Test – who’s going to believe that? We’ll see if the allegation make sense. It is my belief that there is a chance approaching zero that a court will ever convene on this case. Twenty-five years is too long without a confession. Truth and an attempt at reconciliation is my objective. Trials do not provide certainty. Its all probability. Are the AoG and its supporters the most likely perpetrators? You are the judge.
The Results >>