There are two measures of the strength of an accusation. The first is the Complexity Test and the second is the Conspiracy Test. Individual suspects are ranked by the Complexity Test which asks the question: Could this individual have done The Crime? Is the suspect capable of killing, repeatedly, capable of writing the Lord’s Avenger letter advantageously, and was the suspect present at the Ukiah demo?
The following is the result of the Complexity Test. The categorical names and the obvious personal biases make the charts below open to debate. Try it yourself. If your result is different send an email and add your judgment to the rest.
| Complexity Test: capable of killing, repeatedly, Lord’s Avenger letter advantageous, present at demo. | Who has published their suspicion | Cause for suspicion | Killer? | Used similar methods before or after | Benefited from the Lord’s Avenger letter as confession | Benefited from the Lord’s Avenger letter as misdirection | Present at demo | Rank: 1-4, 1 highest, 0 is out of consideration |
| Individual Suspects | ||||||||
| Bari | FBI | ‘common sense’ | no | yes | 0 | |||
| Cherney | FBI | ‘common sense’ | no | yes | 0 | |||
| Sutley | Cherney | typewriter? | no | yes | 0 | |||
| Sweeney | Anderson | ‘common sense’ | no | yes | 0 | |||
| Staley | General | ‘common sense’ | no | yes | 0 | |||
| Unabomber | General | active in area at the time | yes | yes | no | yes | ? | 4 |
Here the Complexity Test is used to rank conspiracies and eliminate the weak ones.
| Complexity Test: capable of killing, repeatedly, Lord’s Avenger letter advantageous, present at demo. | Who has published their suspicion | Cause for suspicion | Killers? | Used similar methods before or after | Benefited from the Lord’s Avenger letter as confession | Benefited from the Lord’s Avenger letter as misdirection | Present at demo | Rank: 1-4, 1 highest, 0 is out of consideration |
| Conspiracy Suspects | ||||||||
| FBI | Cherney | Cointelpro | no | no | ? | 0 | ||
| FBI + Corp ie LP, PL | Cherney [LP] | Merlo | ? | ? | no | points to timber firms | 0 | |
| Corp + Wiseuse | General | Hate campaign | ? | no | no | points to wise use | 0 | |
| Corp + PRCIA ie PR Firm with ex-CIA, ex-FBI | Martel | Pattern and Practice | yes | yes | no | points to timber firms | ? | 3 |
| Corp + Freedom Club ie Unabomber, wiseuse | McLaughlin | Evidence | yes | yes | no | points to wise use | ? | 3 |
| CIA + GOC | Martel | active in area at the time | yes | yes | yes | no | ? | 2 |
| AoG | Martel | Evidence | yes | yes | yes | no | yes | 1
|
| Conspiracy test: simple, accuser open to falsification, character fits the accusation, profited, repeated later, impartial spectator agrees. | Simplest of the options | Falsifiability they would be innocent if… | Worst intentions – they couldn’t do that | Cui Bono – who profited? | Eternal recurrence of the same | Impartial spectator believes it | Sum | Rank |
| CIA + GOC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
| Corp + Freedom Club ie Unabomber, wiseuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
| Corp + PRCIA ie PR Firm with ex-CIA, ex-FBI | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 2 |
| AoG | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
With this analysis more ‘evidence’ points toward the Unabomber, a conspiracy involving the Unabomber, or a conspiracy of a subset of the Army of God. Simplicity and Cui Bono points to AoG over the other more difficult to explain conspiracies. As for individuals, the test points to the Unabomber as the only lone actor named to date who should be a suspect.
Send comments, questions to bobmartel@hotmail.com